CEE FX: Forint longs face geopolitical test – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland kept a neutral stance, with elevated uncertainty from Middle East tensions and CPI projections above expectations. US–Iran headlines triggered a sell-off in CEE rates and FX, with EUR/HUF jumping 1.2%. Taborsky sees EUR/HUF around 360 as attractive for new Forint longs if tensions prove temporary.

NBP steady as EUR/HUF spikes

"The meeting of the National Bank of Poland did not bring many surprises. The statement is broadly neutral and almost unchanged from June. The MPC acknowledges lower oil prices, weaker growth in Poland’s key trading partners, and a recent decline in inflation."

"Yesterday, the CEE region was hit hard by US-Iran headlines, and we saw a sell-off across rates and FX. In the Czech Republic, the market added half a rate hike to pricing for a total of one and a half hikes now. In Poland, expectations have returned from a 50% probability of a rate cut to stable rates for a longer period."

"In the FX space, we saw the biggest move in EUR/HUF with a 1.2% move up, the biggest upside move since early March at the start of the conflict. Of course, the forint is extremely vulnerable due to the massive long positioning built up after the general election in April, and at the same time, the central bank indicated a series of rate cuts at the June meeting, being the only outlier in the region."

"We believe that levels around 360 ​​EUR/HUF will be attractive for the market for new forint longs if the geopolitical situation proves to be temporary and we see a return below 356 again."