The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, and the probability of remaining unchanged in September is 35.7%.

According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 25.1%. By September, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 35.7%, with a 51.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike, and a 13.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike.
AI interpretation: This data directly reflects the market's pricing logic for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Currently, the probability of rates remaining unchanged dominates, showing that the market is cautious about a policy shift in the near term. The expectation of rate hikes reveals that inflation pressure remains a core factor constraining policy easing. This pricing structure reinforces the expectation that a high interest rate environment will persist longer, directly suppressing aggressive bets on near-term rate cuts.