Differences emerge over Federal Reserve policy stance, Kalshi traders estimate about a 50% probability of a rate hike in 2026

Kalshi prediction market traders currently estimate a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, a slight decrease from 56% the previous day. This contract asks Kalshi traders when a rate hike will occur; the contract will be settled accordingly if the hike happens before the end of this year, before July 2027, or before 2028. Kalshi traders believe the probability of a rate hike occurring in 2028 is close to 80%, while the likelihood of a hike before July 2027 is 62%.