Crude oil holds steady above $72, with weekly gains of nearly 5%; Hormuz recovery lags, and the UAE’s record production offsets supply gaps.

(1) Crude oil futures remained steady above $72 per barrel on Friday, with weekly gains nearing 5%. The new round of mutual attacks between the US and Iran has further delayed the complete resumption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, providing ongoing support for the supply side. (2) Despite the escalation of conflict, sources say that negotiations between Washington and Tehran on a long-term agreement are still progressing, with technical discussions yet to be interrupted. The market remains cautiously hopeful that diplomatic channels will eventually achieve a breakthrough. (3) The International Energy Agency warns that if the conflict turns into a prolonged war, it will severely disrupt the process of rebuilding global crude oil inventories later this year. The supply side has already sustained significant losses, and the replenishment window may be compressed. (4) Ship tracking data shows that traffic through the strait remains well below normal levels, but the UAE pushed crude oil production to a record high last month, demonstrating that Gulf oil-producing countries are accelerating internal output increases to cushion the impact of geopolitical disturbances on global supply.