The cryptocurrency market has had a turbulent week overshadowed by geopolitical tensions. Santiment, an on-chain data and analytics platform, evaluated recent market developments and notable metrics in its published report.
The most significant macroeconomic development of the week was the negative statement from the US regarding the ceasefire process in the Middle East. According to Santiment analysts, while this development initially created predictable FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and a pullback in the market, the impact of such geopolitical news on the market is gradually diminishing. The report stated, “The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the news flow needed to create a price break of the same magnitude; the market reaction to macroeconomic developments fades over time.”
After hitting a low of $58,100 towards the end of June, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a “relief rally” of approximately 9.2% in the first week of July, testing levels around $64,500 during the week. However, Santiment is taking a cautious approach to this rise:
- While large wallets (whales) holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been on a general selling trend since the end of April, individual investors continue to buy. Although there has been a slight upturn among whales in the last week (a weak accumulation of approximately 4,095 BTC), this does not yet indicate a permanent trend reversal.
- Social media discussions about Bitcoin have decreased by 18%. The decline in social media volume for major assets like Ethereum (down 5%) and Tether (down 15%) also indicates a continued general bearish sentiment and apathy among investors.
The overall market’s bullish/bearish sentiment has stabilized at a fairly neutral level of 1.06. The decline in expectations on social media suggests the rally is being perceived as a “dead cat bounce.”
Bitcoin’s 365-day MVRV (Minimum Resistance to Markets) is at -27.5%, while Ethereum’s is at -38%. This indicates a significant market downturn, but for long-term buyers, the risk is relatively low compared to historical averages.
XRP’s MVRV (Minimum Viable Rate) for both short and long term has fallen below -45%. Santiment notes that, mathematically, XRP is in one of the most significant “bottom opportunity zones” in its 12-year history, with reduced downside risk, but it will not escape altcoin pressure if BTC falls sharply.
