Bitcoin [BTC] was showing a divergence between spot and derivatives markets. AMBCrypto reported that the apparent demand metric has been negative throughout 2026.
The Coinbase Premium Index was also in the red in recent weeks, showing a lack of demand from institutional players. Meanwhile, rising leverage trends were spotted, leaving the market vulnerable to a liquidation cascade.
The current bear cycle has yet to reach the lows of the previous ones. Stablecoin outflow from exchanges was another hint of defensive positioning from crypto market participants.
This lack of sustained demand was a warning, but also left a potential route higher in the short-term. Here’s what the price action and short-term holder dynamics have to say about a potential Bitcoin price bounce.
Short-term holder buying pressure is dominating BTC, just like in February
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The bearish swing structure saw a continuation signal when the February lows breached in the final week of June. After setting a new low at $57,800, Bitcoin has crept higher.
From a technical analysis standpoint, this bounce can extend up to the $73.2k-$77.5k area, the golden pocket in the Fibonacci retracement levels.
Source: Axel Adler Jr.
The Bitcoin Realized Pressure Model metric compares realized buying and selling pressure from short-term holders compared to current BTC prices. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used this metric to demonstrate that, for now, selling pressure was compressed, and buyers have an advantage, pointing to an accumulation phase.
In February, the buying pressure average score was 61%, compared to the selling average score of 22%. As BTC rallied, the situation shifted. In May, the selling pressure was 43%, compared to the buying score of 11%.
In June and July, short-term holder buying pressure was dominant once again, with 37%-46%, while selling was compressed to 16%.
Until these scores deteriorate, a bounce like the one that commenced in February would be possible.
Source: Axel Adler Jr.
This metric separates different cohorts of short-term holders’ purchase prices. The 1-week-1-month cohort’s realized price was at $61.6k, while the 3-month-6-month holder cohort’s average purchase price was at $74.9k.
The freshest cohort of buyers is in profit, but the older cohorts [1 to 6 months] were underwater by around 15%.
It is possible that this cohort would wait for a bigger price bounce toward or beyond $70k before beginning to sell in large numbers. In such a scenario, a short-term rally would once again be met by a wave of selling.
The analyst concluded that the current market price was within an accumulation zone with “a moderate risk-on tilt”. A reclaim of the $71k level would be a notable confirmation of a bullish pivot.
Final Summary
- The derivatives build up, and the lack of sweeping, long-term holder accumulation trends was a threat to long-term recovery.
- Short-term holder accumulation could push prices toward $70k, a popular crypto analyst warned.
