EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges higher above 184.50, but stays capped by clustered resistance

 The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 184.65 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency. 

Furthermore, speculation over domestic asset shifts could underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government is pursuing measures that would include the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets. Analysts said this move could offer greater support to ‌the battered currency than intervention.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle line. The pair is drifting in the lower half of the recent volatility envelope, with the lower Bollinger band acting as the next downside reference, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.6 hovers just under the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued, consolidative downside pressure rather than a strong trend.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges in the 184.80-184.85 zone, representing the Bollinger 20-day middle band and the 100-day SMA. A daily close above this clustered band would be needed to ease the current downside bias and expose the upper Bollinger band near 186.12. On the downside, the first notable support is the lower Bollinger band at 183.53, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline; a break below this level would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper corrective slide.