US Dollar Rebound Pressures Silver Back to Lower Range; Beware of Another Breakdown

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新浪财经2026/07/13 06:47

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By:新浪财经

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US Dollar Rebound Pressures Silver Back to Lower Range; Beware of Another Breakdown image 0

Source: Huitong Finance

　　During the Asian session on Monday, international

spot silver

continued its downward trend, with prices hovering around

$58.00/oz

, logging a second consecutive trading day of declines. Although heightened geopolitical risks have increased market demand for safe-haven assets, inflationary pressures from rising energy prices have also strengthened expectations that US

interest rates will remain high, leading to continued short-term volatility at lower levels for silver.

On Sunday evening, United States Central Command launched a new round of strikes against Iran-related targets, aiming to weaken Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US military has conducted strikes on

more than 300 targets over the past three days, of which around 140 targets were hit just on Saturday

. The US and Iran still have significant disagreements regarding the free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, further intensifying concerns over the security of global energy supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world’s maritime crude oil shipments

. As Middle East tensions persist, international oil prices have strengthened again. Rising energy costs have made the market more cautious about the global inflation outlook. Elevated inflation expectations suggest the Federal Reserve

may need to maintain a tighter monetary policy for a longer period, and a high interest rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, thus limiting silver’s upside.

　　Earlier, the US and Iran reached a phased agreement, and the market once expected that energy supplies in the Middle East would gradually normalize, causing international oil prices to fall. However, the recent escalation of military conflicts has quickly cooled previous optimism. Iran has stated that, before the US fulfills its earlier commitments regarding shipping security and the restoration of Iranian crude oil exports, it will be difficult to resume further negotiations. This indicates that the regional situation remains highly uncertain in the short term.

The market is now turning its focus to this week’s release of the US

June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Market expectations are that the overall CPI may decline by 0.1%, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%

. If the actual data comes in below market expectations, this would ease concerns about further Fed tightening, which could lead to a pullback in the US dollar and Treasury yields, thus providing support for silver; if inflation data remains strong, it may reinforce expectations for another rate hike this year, limiting silver’s room for gains.

　　In addition, the market will also be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's first address to the US Congress later this week. Investors will closely watch his latest views on the US economy, inflation trends, and the path of future monetary policy to further gauge the Fed’s next moves.

From a technical perspective,

spot silver remains weak and volatile on the daily chart, with prices trading below the medium- and long-term moving averages and the downtrend still intact. The MACD indicator remains below the zero line, but the pace of red bar expansion has slowed, suggesting upside momentum is stabilizing; the RSI stays in the slightly bullish neutral zone, indicating short-term upward potential. If prices break above $60.00, silver may further challenge the $61.20 and $62.50 resistance areas; on the downside, keep an eye on support at $58.00, $57.00, and $55.80

, as a break below these levels could trigger a short-term correction.

　　On the 4-hour chart, silver continues to consolidate at lower levels, trading near its short-term moving averages. The MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars have narrowed; RSI remains near 55, with a balanced tug of war between bulls and bears. If the US CPI data comes in below expectations, silver could break through the $60 barrier and extend its rally; if inflation remains strong and pushes the dollar higher, silver may retest support near $57.20, with short-term volatility expected to increase further.

　　Editor’s summary

The silver market is currently influenced by both safe-haven demand and expectations of high interest rates.

The escalation of US-Iran tensions has increased risk aversion, but inflationary pressures from rising energy prices have also strengthened expectations for continued Fed tightening

, keeping silver in a low-level consolidation in the near term. This week’s US June CPI data and Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh's congressional testimony will be key catalysts for the next phase of silver price direction. If US inflation continues to ease, silver could strengthen further; if high rate expectations persist, silver may remain range-bound at lower levels.

Editor: Zhu Hennan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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