Economists Lower Eurozone 2026 Growth Forecast Due to Middle East Conflict

Golden Ten Data reported on July 13 that a survey conducted from July 3 to 8 shows economists believe that following the resumption of conflict in the Middle East, economic growth in the Eurozone is expected to be weaker than previously predicted this year. The median forecast from 56 economists indicates that respondents have lowered their economic growth expectations for the Eurozone in 2026 to 0.5%. This is below last month's forecast of 0.7% and also below the 0.8% in the European Central Bank's baseline scenario. Economists also revised down their economic growth expectations for 2028, but maintained their forecast for growth next year. They expect the median inflation rate this year to be 2.8%, slightly lower than last month due to a sharp decline in oil prices, although this level remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% target. Respondents expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again in September, with the first rate cut expected in September 2027.