US Dollar: CPI, Fed speakers and Warsh testimony – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights a US‑centric data and policy calendar, with June CPI expected to ease to 3.8% year‑on‑year and core inflation to 2.8%. He also points to multiple Fed speakers and new Chair Warsh’s testimonies in Congress, alongside US producer prices and retail sales, as key inputs for US Dollar traders over the coming days.

Busy US data and Fed schedule

"Tuesday, the Bureau for Labor Statistics reports the June CPI print, which is expected to moderate to 3.8% y/y from 4.2%. Core inflation is seen easing marginally to 2.8%, but the Warsh-fans that prefer the trimmed-mean measure can look out for the Cleveland Fed’s estimate."

"Speaking of Warsh, the fresh Fed chair is due to testify at the House Financial Services Committee. His colleagues Barr, Goolsbee, Cook and Bowman are due to speak too."

"Wednesday’s data include industrial production for May, and US producer price inflation. The Bank of Canada will set rates. We expect the central bank to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%. That view is widely shared by markets and our peers: only one of the 21 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasts a 25bp rate hike."

"Thursday’s calendar includes UK monthly GDP estimates and US retail sales for June. Musalem, Logan, and Schmid (all Fed) deliver remarks."