Escalation of US-Iran Tensions Leads to Strait Closure, US Immigration Tightening May Weaken Economic Growth Momentum, China Gradually Increases Gold Holdings to Optimize Reserve Structure — 0713 Macro Overview (Odaily Planet Daily)

Escalation of US-Iran Tensions Leads to Strait Closure, US Immigration Tightening May Weaken Economic Growth Momentum, China Gradually Increases Gold Holdings to Optimize Reserve Structure — 0713 Macro Overview (Odaily Planet Daily)

华尔街见闻2026/07/13 16:53

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By:华尔街见闻

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The ceasefire mechanism between the US and Iran remains fragile, with the Strait of Hormuz closing again; frequent reversals in the situation may become the norm, and oil price volatility remains elevated. The June FOMC minutes revealed a hawkish stance, and Walsh announced the list of special task force leaders, but short-term policy guidance remains unclear.
The Trump administration is tightening immigration controls on two fronts, with legal entries contracting by approximately 2.5 times more than illegal immigration, leading to a significant shortfall in supplementary migrant labor. Employment growth in sectors dependent on immigrant labor, such as construction and transportation utilities, has slowed. Tighter labor supply and demand could hinder wage cooling, putting downward pressure on potential GDP growth.
The People’s Bank of China has increased gold holdings for the 20th consecutive month, with a noticeably faster pace in the second quarter; price volatility has not altered this allocation trend. Gold provides official reserves with non-sovereign credit characteristics and diversification benefits. China's gold reserves, at about 8%, are much lower than the global average of 27%. Foreign exchange reserves remain the foundation, and in the future, China may continue a path of stable total reserves with a steady increase in gold holdings.

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Escalation of US-Iran Tensions Leads to Strait Closure, US Immigration Tightening May Weaken Economic Growth Momentum, China Gradually Increases Gold Holdings to Optimize Reserve Structure — 0713 Macro Overview (Odaily Planet Daily)

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