Gold price falls below $4,000, with future market closely watching Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical shifts

　　On July 14, 2026, as tensions between the US and Iran persist, gold prices continue to decline, with COMEX gold futures experiencing another sharp drop, fluctuating around the $4,000 level.

　　According to Iranian media on the 14th, the headquarters of the US Navy Fifth Fleet in Bahrain was hit by Iranian missiles. In the early hours of the 14th local time, the Iranian military issued a statement saying that, in response to the US's continuous provocations and acts of aggression against Iran, the Iranian army deployed suicide drones several hours earlier to strike the US military’s communications systems, fuel storage facilities, “Patriot” air defense systems, control towers, and ammunition depots in Kuwait.

　　Looking ahead to the next one to two months, industry insiders believe that US inflation data and Federal Reserve monetary policy are the core variables that could break the current price range. If US core CPI remains above 2.9%, market expectations for tightening will be reignited, posing a risk that gold prices could effectively break below the $4,000/ounce support level and undergo a deeper correction; if inflation cools significantly and the September Federal Reserve meeting sends signals of monetary easing, gold prices are expected to break through the $4,140/ounce resistance zone. On the geopolitical front, an escalation of the US-Iran conflict will push up global inflation expectations and increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting short-term pressure on gold prices; if tensions in the Middle East ease, inflationary pressure subsides, and both the US dollar and US Treasury yields weaken simultaneously, combined with the continued gold buying by central banks worldwide, there will be further upside potential for gold prices.

Editor: Zhu Henan