【Macro Outlook】June PPI and Core CPI Data Set for Release! How Will Inflation Trends Impact the Market?

This week, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will make his first appearance at a congressional hearing to testify on the monetary policy report. The Fed has submitted its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, acknowledging that inflation rose further in the spring but reaffirming its firm commitment to achieving price stability. The report also notes that the labor market remains stable and production activity continues to be strong.

Key Data Highlights:

1. Headline PPI (Beijing Time: July 14, 20:30):

Expected to remain elevated on a year-over-year basis (around 6.0%-6.3%), while month-over-month figures may ease. May’s reading was 6.5%. Recent oil price declines (influenced by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire) are exerting downward pressure. Market consensus suggests May may have marked this year’s interim inflation peak.

2. Core CPI (Beijing Time: July 15, 20:30):

Expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with the year-over-year rate holding steady at 2.9%. Upward pressures mainly come from appliances, hotels, and transportation fares, while downward factors include fading tariff effects and more cautious consumer spending.

Policy Implications: These data releases will serve as a key test of the “Higher for Longer” policy path. Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance on fighting inflation could further push up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthen the U.S. dollar.

Trading Layout Suggestions (Bitget UEX Reference):

1. Inflation Eases (Dovish Scenario): Bullish for tech/AI growth stocks. Key focus: rNVDA、rAMD、rPLTR、rMSFT 、rAAPL
2. Inflation Remains Stubborn (Hawkish Scenario): Bullish for financials, energy, and defense sectors. Key focus:  rJPM、、rXOM、rCVX、rLMT、rRTX
3. Neutral Scenario: AI infrastructure (computing power + storage) paired with energy as an inflation hedge remains the highest-conviction theme for the second half of the year：rDELL、rWDC、rSTX、rMU

Trading Tips: Market volatility is expected to spike significantly around the data releases. It is recommended to strictly control position sizes and stay flexible. Regardless of the data outcome, prioritize positioning in AI and energy themes to capture structural opportunities.

Log in to the Bitget App, go to the "Markets - Stocks" section, and get positioned early in core tokens like rNVDA, rXOM, rMU, and others~