ING: The Bank of Canada’s Substantive Hawkish Threshold Remains High, Inflation Outlook Still Mild

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on July 15 that ING believes the threshold for the Bank of Canada to adopt a genuinely hawkish stance is very high, and it expects no surprises at tonight’s meeting. Unless oil prices rebound to the levels seen in April and May, the inflation outlook remains too mild for a rate hike, especially considering the downside risks to employment and economic activity brought by uncertainties surrounding the USMCA agreement. ING points out that currently, the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance adjustment and short-term oil price increases are supporting the Canadian dollar, but the risk premium related to the USMCA agreement will continue to rise in the third quarter. It is expected that in the coming months, the US dollar will not fall below 1.40 against the Canadian dollar.```