JPMorgan: AI Inference Extends Server Cycle, Memory Price Hikes Suppress PC Demand

On July 16, JPMorgan reported on July 15 that it has significantly raised its server shipment forecasts, increasing the growth rate for 2026 from 15% to 22% and for 2027 from 8% to 25%. AI inference is the core driver, as companies require a large number of inference servers to implement AI models. JPMorgan estimates that by 2028, server CPU shipments will rise from 26 million units to 68 million units, with demand related to AgenticAI accounting for 53 million units. Meanwhile, the PC market is being suppressed by rising memory prices, leading brands to raise prices to maintain profit margins at the cost of sales. PC shipments are expected to decline by 8% in 2026, with consumer PCs dropping by 14%. Supply bottlenecks remain a constraint, with no segment—CPU, motherboard, memory, PCB, or power components—showing any looseness. In the U.S. stock market, AI server manufacturers such as Dell Technologies, HPE, and AMD continue to benefit, while component suppliers like Arista Networks, Amphenol, Corning, Lumentum, and Micron Technology benefit from the structural trend of value shifting towards components. JPMorgan recommends focusing on server components over contract manufacturing and avoiding the overall PC sector.