Natural gas: Storage challenge grows on LNG competition – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that investment funds have sharply increased net long positions in TTF natural gas, driven by fresh longs. LNG and European gas markets are seen as vulnerable with heightened US–Iran hostilities and stronger competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes. Low EU gas storage levels versus the five-year average complicate refilling ahead of the heating season.

Low EU storage and LNG risks

"Investment funds boosted their net long in TTF natural gas by 26.7TWh over the last reporting week to 181.9TWh. The move is dominated by fresh longs entering the market."

"The LNG and European gas markets remain vulnerable amid the flare-up in hostilities between the US and Iran. There’s increased competition between Europe and Asia for spot LNG cargoes."

"LNG supply disruptions and stronger power generation demand make the job of refilling storage ahead of the heating season increasingly more difficult. EU gas storage is just 53% full vs a 5-year average of 68%, and some distance from the EU’s minimum target ahead of 75% going into the heating season."