Strong US Employment and Manufacturing Data Boosts Dollar, Gold Drops Below $4,000 Mark Again

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新浪财经2026/07/17 08:36

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By:新浪财经

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(XAU/USD) saw a mild rebound during the Asian session on Friday, recovering part of the previous day's losses, but overall it remains near monthly lows. From the broader market perspective, the rebound momentum for gold remains limited. The resilience of the US economic fundamentals, coupled with the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East that is pushing up energy prices, has reignited market concerns about global inflationary pressures. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a high interest rate policy are further heating up, and the US dollar

thus continues to attract capital inflows, exerting ongoing pressure on interest-free gold.

The military conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, with both sides further expanding the scope of their operations on Thursday. According to market surveys, parts of civilian infrastructure at Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, including power facilities and railway stations, were attacked; Iran, meanwhile, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Gulf targets associated with US allies. At the same time, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have worsened further, with the United States strengthening its maritime blockade and intercepting commercial vessels attempting to cross the restricted zone.

The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil transport

and its security situation remains a major focus for the international energy market.

Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned of a possible further expansion of the conflict. Market surveys show that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi forces to prepare to block the Red Sea’s energy shipping routes. Concerns over rising risks for major global energy transport routes have driven international oil prices to rise more than

10%

this week, hitting their highest level in nearly a month. The continued rise in energy prices not only increases global supply risks but also reinforces market expectations that imported inflationary pressures could return.

On the macroeconomic front, the latest data from the US continues to signal economic resilience. According to data from the US Department of Labor, for the week ending July 11, initial jobless claims fell to

208,000, which was below market expectations, indicating that the US labor market remains robust. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July surged from the previous 10.3 to 41.4

, the highest level since November 2021, reflecting a marked improvement in US manufacturing activity, with indicators such as new orders, production, and prices all remaining in expansionary territory.

　　Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials continue to send hawkish signals. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that while recent consumer and producer inflation data has shown some improvement, it is not enough to confirm that inflation has returned to target levels. The Fed still sees the need to moderately tighten monetary policy further to ensure long-term price stability. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also stated that if inflation does not continue to improve in the coming months, another rate hike cannot be ruled out.

Driven by strong economic data and hawkish comments, the market continues to adjust its monetary policy expectations. Currently, market estimates place the probability of another Fed rate hike of

25 basis points

in December this year at nearly

75%

. The high interest rate environment not only keeps US Treasury yields elevated but also continues to

support a strong dollar, meaning gold’s rebound remains significantly limited.

　　However, the gold market has not completely lost support. With the Middle East situation escalating, global risk aversion demand still exists, and whenever conflict intensifies or energy transport risks increase, gold could still attract periodic capital inflows. Thus, gold’s current price movement reflects a tug-of-war between high yield pressure and safe-haven demand, and in the short term, the market is expected to continue with a slightly weak oscillating pattern.

　　Going forward, focus will be on upcoming US data including building permits, housing starts, industrial production, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and inflation expectations data, as well as further comments from Federal Reserve officials. If economic data remains strong, the market may further raise expectations for longer-lasting high rates, supporting the dollar and limiting gold’s rebound; conversely, if data shows signs of slowing, it could curb the dollar’s rally and give gold some room to rebound.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart for gold shows that it remains in a descending channel, with prices persistently capped by long-term moving averages and the overall mid-term corrective structure still intact. Although the MACD indicator is showing signs of recovery from lower levels and bearish momentum is weakening, a valid bullish crossover has yet to form, indicating that the rebound momentum is still limited; momentum indicators also show a narrowing of the bearish advantage, but the overall trend remains biased to the downside. On the upside, immediate attention should be paid to

resistance at the descending channel’s upper boundary near $4,050 (UTC+8). If there is a further breakout, gold may test key long-term moving average resistance near $4,150 (UTC+8); while on the downside, focus on support at the channel’s lower boundary around $3,900

(UTC+8). A break below this level would further confirm the continuation of the downtrend and potentially open up more downside space.

　　From the 4-hour chart, gold’s recent rebound mainly constitutes a technical correction within a downtrend, and prices have yet to break free from the short-term downward trajectory. The short-term MACD shows a weak recovery, indicating some buying interest, but the sustainability needs to be monitored; short-term moving averages are flattening out, suggesting the market is entering a direction-selection phase. If prices can consolidate above $4,050 (UTC+8), there could be a short-term test of higher resistance regions; conversely, if the recent low is retested and $3,900 support (UTC+8) is lost, the bears could regain strength and gold prices may seek lower support.

　　Editor’s Summary

　　In summary, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict keeps pushing up international oil prices and reignites global inflation risks. At the same time, continued strong US employment and manufacturing data combined with hawkish signaling from various Fed officials reinforce market expectations for an extended high-interest-rate environment, keeping the dollar strong and exerting ongoing pressure on gold. However, geopolitical risks continue to offer some safe-haven demand for gold, making a one-sided sharp decline less likely in the short term. Looking ahead, the market’s focus will remain on US economic data, Fed policy expectations, and developments in the Middle East, with gold expected to repeatedly oscillate between safe-haven support and dollar strength, maintaining a slightly weak, volatile range in the short term.

Editor: Guo Jian

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Strong US Employment and Manufacturing Data Boosts Dollar, Gold Drops Below $4,000 Mark Again

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