The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of rates remaining unchanged in September is 41.4%.

According to CME Federal Reserve Watch, there is an 85.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in July, and a 14.4% probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 41.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.2%, and a 50 basis point cumulative hike is 7.5%. AI Analysis: Current expectations for the rate path indicate a high market consensus for the Fed to hold steady on policy in the short term. The significant rise in the probability of a September rate hike reflects a revaluation by the market regarding inflation's stickiness and the policy tightening cycle. This shift in expectations directly undermines the rationale for a rapid rate cut within the year. The Fed's intention to maintain high-interest rates is already well reflected in the financial markets. Investors are quickly adjusting their asset allocations to navigate a prolonged high-rate environment.