ECB Expected to Maintain Interest Rates Amid High Uncertainty in July

On July 18, Scotiabank stated that policy adjustments do not have to follow a straight line, especially during periods of high uncertainty. This view seems to be dominating the market's pricing for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision next Thursday, with expectations that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% following a 25 basis point hike in June. The market generally anticipates no changes. ECB President Christine Lagarde's last significant statement was on July 1, when she noted, "I believe that the upward risks to inflation and the downward risks to growth we face may be more balanced than a few weeks ago, as changes are happening rapidly." Since then, conflict between the U.S. and Iran has reignited, causing both WTI and Brent crude oil prices to rise by approximately $12 per barrel. To some extent, the June inflation report may have provided the ECB with more time to assess the situation, as the ECB adheres to a 'data-dependent' principle. The overall CPI in the Eurozone decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI fell from 2.6% (the highest since April last year) to 2.4% year-on-year. Nevertheless, market sentiment indicators clearly show that hawkish views still dominate.