Singapore Dollar: AI exports support SGD against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Moses Lim and Dr. Henry Hao note that Singapore’s June non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth moderated to 20.7% year-on-year but remained strong, with electronics exports surging on AI-related semiconductor demand. They stress that overall export prospects look resilient, as continued AI infrastructure investment should offset chemical-sector disruptions, while clearer global trade policies and easing Middle East tensions could support a recovery in non-electronics exports. USD/SGD trades near 1.2910.

AI demand supports NODX and SGD

"In H1 2026, NODX grew 18.6%, well above the government's full-year forecast of 3-5%, suggesting external demand remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties."

"This suggests the global electronics upcycle remains intact, supported by sustained capex commitments from hyperscalers and cloud service providers."

"In addition, tariff-related headwinds could weigh on non-electronic exports."

"Nevertheless, the tariff impact may prove less severe than feared, given that most economies are expected to face a baseline 10% tariff on shipments to the US."

"Overall, the export outlook remains resilient as continued AI infrastructure investment could support electronic shipments and offset supply chain disruptions in the chemical sector."