The options market bets on Tesla (TSLA.US) experiencing its largest volatility in nearly a year after earnings; overall sentiment remains optimistic.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) will release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, and options traders are betting that the company's stock price will experience the largest volatility in nearly a year following the report.

Options market data shows that the current at-the-money call and put option prices imply Tesla's stock price will fluctuate by about 5.76% after the earnings release, marking the highest implied volatility since October 2025, when it reached approximately 6%. This also means the stock could see its largest actual post-earnings move since July last year.

From the sentiment perspective, capital is generally leaning optimistic. As of midday Tuesday, the market had bought about 244,000 call options, significantly higher than the approximately 116,000 put options, with call option premiums accounting for more than two-thirds of all options trading volume.

The three most actively traded contracts are all call options. Among them, the call option expiring this Friday with a strike price of $380 is the most sought after, with traders spending over $15 million buying this contract. Since the option price is about $11 per contract, Tesla's stock would need to rise another 3% this week for buyers to profit.

However, although the options market is anticipating increased volatility, Tesla's actual stock performance after recent earnings has been relatively muted. According to Chicago Board Options Exchange data, over the past four quarters, the median post-earnings share price movement for Tesla was just 3.5%.

In addition to Tesla's earnings, the market will also focus on another key Musk-related event—SpaceX (SPCX.US) will release its first earnings report post-IPO on August 4. The options market currently expects SpaceX's share price could see about 12% two-way volatility at that time.

TheoTrade instructor Gianni Di Poce stated that if investors have a higher risk appetite, they could consider buying on dips for Tesla, as the stock is still trading near a key support level. In the long run, he remains optimistic about Tesla, although the share price this year has generally maintained a range-bound trend.

He noted: "SpaceX has been putting some pressure on Tesla, and the market is still weighing which company's stock to hold, as well as whether the two companies might merge in the future."

After completing a record-setting IPO in June this year, SpaceX's market value once approached $2 trillion. However, with the share price pulling back, the company's latest market capitalization has dropped to about $1.7 trillion, still higher than Tesla's current valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion.