Analysts say Tesla and SpaceX may merge in 2027, but still face regulatory hurdles

BlockBeats news, July 22, according to CNN, after SpaceX went public, the market is watching to see whether Elon Musk will push for a merger between SpaceX and Tesla. Tesla will release its earnings report after the close of US markets on Wednesday, followed by an investor conference call, where Musk may provide more clues about the future relationship between the two companies.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta said that, from a strategic perspective, a merger could unify the vision, engineering management, and AI business of both companies. Currently, the two companies have already established a joint venture, Terafab, in March this year, constructing a chip factory in Austin, Texas. Technology analyst Dan Ives predicts that the likelihood of Tesla and SpaceX merging in 2027 is over 80%, but this is only his personal judgment.

If the two companies merge, the overall valuation could reach about $3 trillion, bringing them on par with Microsoft in scale. The merger may also increase Musk's control over Tesla; he currently holds more than 80% of the voting rights in SpaceX, while his stake in Tesla is about 20%.

However, potential deals still face regulatory hurdles. Gupta pointed out that Tesla has large factories in China and generates a significant proportion of its sales and profits there, while SpaceX has close ties with the US government. In addition, the valuations of both companies are highly dependent on the market’s confidence in Musk, and after a merger, the related risks may become even more concentrated.