If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, the global supply chain will be hit even harder than by a Hormuz Strait closure.

⑴ Saunders, a supply chain expert from Northeastern University, pointed out that if the Houthis implement their announced blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the path of destruction to the global economy will differ drastically from that of the Strait of Hormuz—the former will be a broader shock to trade and logistics, while the latter is purely an energy supply crisis. ⑵ The Strait of Hormuz sees the passage of about 21 million barrels of crude oil daily, serving as a core chokepoint for oil supply. In contrast, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait carries only about 4.2 million barrels per day of oil flow, yet covers approximately 15% of global maritime trade and 30% of container transport, including a wide range of categories such as electronics, automotive parts, food, and raw materials. ⑶ Although Saudi Arabia can use its East-West pipeline to transport crude from eastern oil fields to Red Sea ports and avoid the risks of Hormuz, simultaneous closures of both straits would deprive the world of vital supply sources and necessary transport redundancy. Circumnavigating Africa would add more than ten days to voyages, driving up fuel and insurance costs and weakening effective shipping capacity due to slower vessel and container turnovers. ⑷ Saunders believes the combined blockade at two key points would trigger a mutually reinforcing global supply chain crisis—a vicious cycle of energy prices, freight charges, inflation, and manufacturing delays. Close attention should be paid to whether Bab el-Mandeb traffic continues to decline, whether diesel and jet fuel prices diverge from crude oil trends, and other real-economy indicators, to assess whether the current situation has surpassed the “financial market anxiety” phase.