J.P. Morgan's "Technical Analysis": Oil Prices Hit Key Resistance, Gold Remains Bearish in the Medium Term, Copper Drops Below Support Level to Strengthen Bearish Outlook

The commodities market is simultaneously reaching several technical junctures.

According to Wind Trading Desk, Jason Hunter, a technical strategist at JP Morgan, pointed out in his July 21 commodities technical chart report that major commodities such as Brent crude oil, gold, and copper have all reached key price nodes, and the directional signals are significantly diverging—crude oil’s short-term bulls are facing resistance, gold maintains a medium-term bearish posture, and copper is in an unresolved “potential cyclical top” state.

A common feature of these three assets: rebound space is limited, while downside risks are relatively clear. Whether it’s oil prices encountering resistance around 85, or gold prices remaining bearish under 4197, the current chart structure signals that “further upside requires more confirmation, while the path downward is already available.”

Crude Oil: Rally hits the ceiling, summer range cap reached

After Brent crude oil (December 2026 contract) rebounded from the $72.07–72.51 support range, the rally has encountered concentrated resistance in the $83–85.71 area, which is an overlap of three critical resistance levels:

• $83–84: June pattern breakdown point

• $84.65: May 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

• $85.71: Tactical bottom target from June to July

According to JP Morgan, this area is regarded as the “possible ceiling of the summer trading range”.

However, Hunter also warns, “Significant geopolitical and headline risks make chart-based judgments less certain.”

If oil prices effectively break through this resistance area, the next level to watch is $97.87—the December 2020 channel resistance.

Conversely, if prices fall below the recent pattern breakout support of $78.32–78.97, short-term bullish momentum will be entirely disrupted, reinforcing the view of range-bound trading.

In short: Oil is now near the “ceiling”, requiring multiple resistance breaks to move higher, and has a clear stop-loss reference on the downside.

Gold: Medium-term bearish, limited rebound potential

Spot gold is currently seeking support around $4,074 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from August 2022) and $3,886 (October 2025 low).

Recently, there have been a cluster of momentum divergence buy signals, suggesting the possibility of further consolidation in the short term. However, JP Morgan states, “We expect the upside throughout the summer to be limited.”

There are three reasons:

1. Lack of medium-term accumulation on the chart—there is not enough base building to support a trend reversal rally.

2. Strong US Dollar Index (DXY)—trading above the annual range breakout, putting pressure on gold.

3. Two-year US Treasury yields remain high—have broken above multi-quarter ranges, an unfavorable position for gold.

As long as gold stays below the $4,197–4,264 trendline cluster, JP Morgan sees it as “maintaining a strong medium-term bearish bias.” The medium-term resistance is near $4,500.

If gold accelerates downward again, the next support targets are:

• $3,605: 50% Fibonacci retracement from August 2022

• $3,400–3,500: Q4 2025 breakout region

Copper: Tactical resistance broken, cyclical top risk remains

LME three-month copper successfully broke above tactical pattern resistance near $13,400, temporarily easing immediate bearish pressure.

However, JP Morgan noted that copper lost long-term bullish momentum sharply in the $14,000–15,000 resistance area for 2026, “the chart pattern looks like a potential cyclical top.”

Key support is at $12,537–12,988. Hunter stated, “If the price breaks below this medium-term support range, it will reinforce a medium-term bearish outlook.”

In other words: Copper is now in a state of “high-level consolidation with an unconfirmed top”. If support fails, a bearish scenario will be triggered.

Aluminum & Nickel: Sharp drops seen, rebound scope is limited

Unlike copper’s “sideways wait-and-see”, aluminum and nickel’s technical patterns have turned clearly bearish.

Aluminum (LME three months):

From the tactical rebound at $3,043 (April 2025 50% Fibonacci retracement), the current pattern is “corrective” rather than trending. Short-term resistance lies at $3,325 (June 38.2% retracement), while the “ceiling” over the coming months is projected at $3,400–3,500—the May–June top pattern breakdown area. Upon another sharp downturn, the next support is at $2,868 (April 2025 61.8% retracement).

Nickel (LME three months):

After sharp drops from May to July, nickel is rebounding from the $16,208–16,437 medium-term support range. However, JP Morgan expects substantial selling at the $17,481–17,790 resistance cluster, “because there hasn’t yet been meaningful base building.” If support is decisively broken, a full retracement to $13,865–14,235 (April/December 2025 lows) is possible.

Silver: Support test ongoing, rally may be hard to sustain

Spot silver is attempting to stabilize after testing the $53.39–54.73 medium-term support range. This area includes Q4 2025 region breakouts, as well as a confluence of several Fibonacci and volatility targets.

JP Morgan expects any short-term rebound may fade around $64 (2026 chart inflection point), with major resistance concentrated in the $66.87–72.07 zone.