Paulson Rarely Speaks Out: Gold Is Still in the 'Early Stage' of the Bull Market, Far From Over

Today, Thursday (July 23), during the Asian trading session, international spot gold was quoted at $4114.56/oz, down 0.38% intraday, continuing the pullback momentum after the surge on July 22, pressured by cooled expectations for Fed rate cuts, rising US Treasury yields, and a strong US dollar. Domestically, the AU9999 spot price was 895.78 yuan/gram, gold T+D closed at 903.69 yuan/gram, with the central bank’s 20 consecutive months of gold reserves adding long-term support, but short-term liquidity is dominating price fluctuations, and the market has entered a window of long/short contention.

[News Flash]

John Paulson, the legendary hedge fund manager who became famous for shorting the US subprime market, has recently issued a powerful bullish signal once again. He stated bluntly that gold is still in the "early stages" of a long-term bull market and that the current rally is far from over. With market confidence in fiat currencies continuously waning, gold’s status as the ultimate alternative asset will keep consolidating.

Paulson attributes the rise of gold to profound “structural” changes, rather than short-term trading fluctuations. He pointed out that since shifting his investment focus to gold in 2009, the gold price has cumulatively risen by about threefold, once breaching $5,000/oz. The core driving force of this trend is the continuous expansion on the demand side: on one hand, global central banks are rapidly increasing gold reserves to achieve reserve diversification; on the other, private sector demand for gold allocation is rising in tandem. “Gold is gradually becoming the world’s preferred reserve currency, replacing the constantly depreciating fiat money,” Paulson emphasized. “This demand, fueled by the loss of confidence in paper currencies, is long-term and irreversible.”

As for the recent pullback in gold prices, Paulson sees it as healthy consolidation within the long-term upward trend, rather than a reversal. He especially stressed gold mining stocks, particularly those companies with substantial undeveloped resources, may offer higher return leverage than physical gold. Citing his own position as Co-Chairman of NovaGold, he highlighted that the company holds an enormous 40 million ounces in Alaska’s Donlin Gold project but has a market value of only around $4.2 billion. This misalignment between assets and market value makes it highly sensitive to gold price increases.

Paulson’s remarks have injected confidence into the market, further reinforcing the mainstream narrative supported by “de-dollarization” and central bank gold purchases. For global reserve managers seeking to reduce their dollar exposure, such bullish perspectives from Wall Street heavyweights may accelerate the reallocation of funds to gold and related equities.

[Latest Gold Market Analysis]

Technical Review and Intraday Outlook: Yesterday, gold showed a classic three-step-forward, two-steps-back structural rebound. It started from 4076 in the early session, climbed to 4142 before retracing to find support at 4106, then rallied again to 4166 before pulling back, with an intraday low at 4114.5. There was no one-sided uninterrupted rise without correction; in every round, buying support emerged after about a $5 pullback, fully validating the current choppy rebound trend, with bulls mainly repairing in ladder fashion. Today’s market structure is symmetric to the previous wave, expecting an initial dip followed by a rebound in the early Asian session. For the rally to replicate the previous momentum, it must firmly break through the 4180 threshold. In short-term four-hour charts, resistance has shifted down to around 4158, with key lower support in the 4106-4115 range.

Support: 4115-4106. Once this is effectively broken, look further down to 4076—4060—4045;

Resistance: The primary pressure in the Asian session is 4158-4160. If broken, target the previous high at 4170-4180; if 4180 is broken convincingly, look further at daily resistance 4203-4215.

Intraday trading strategy: Treat the Asian session primarily as a wide range choppy market, focusing on the core fluctuation range 4117—4158, and position according to the high/low points of the range.

Near 4117, if it stabilizes, low buys may be attempted, with stops at 4112, and targets at 4130-40-58-4170 in succession;

If a rebound reaches 4158-4160 and stalls, short-term shorts may be taken, with stops at 4167, and targets back at 4120-4117;

Closely watch the outcome around the 4158 pivot: a firm hold above 4158 supports a bullish play toward previous highs; if it breaks below 4115, shift focus to test the 4076 area downward. If 4180 is broken, closely track 4215.