Grayscale, a crypto asset management company, presented two different scenarios regarding the duration of the current downtrend in its latest assessment of the Bitcoin market. According to the company, if the “four-year cycle” theory, based on historical data, remains valid, the Bitcoin bear market could last until September or October.
Grayscale analysis noted that in past cycles, the Bitcoin price typically bottomed out approximately a year after its market peak, with retracements averaging around 80 percent. According to this pattern, it seems likely that the price will test lower levels in the current cycle and form a bottom in the autumn months.
However, the company added that it prefers an alternative perspective based on macroeconomic factors, which it stated are becoming increasingly important. According to this perspective, Bitcoin is now becoming a more mature asset class, and its price movements are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic dynamics such as economic growth and real interest rates. It was also pointed out that past bear markets have mostly emerged in environments of slowing growth and rising real interest rates.
According to Grayscale, if the US economy remains strong and the Fed avoids further interest rate hikes, the Bitcoin price may already have bottomed out. This approach suggests that the future direction of the market will depend on changes in macroeconomic conditions rather than classic cycles.
The key takeaway from the company’s assessment was the divergence between two opposing viewpoints: the four-year cycle theory points to lower levels, while the macro-focused perspective argues that Bitcoin may have already bottomed out.
