After listening to Musk's speech, analysts raise the probability of a Tesla and SpaceX merger to 90%

Tesla's latest earnings call not only delivered performance data but unexpectedly became a catalyst for the market to re-examine the potential merger prospects between Tesla and SpaceX.

During this Wednesday’s earnings call, Elon Musk responded to questions about a possible merger between the two companies, saying that cooperation is deepening and “the areas of overlap are increasing.” Deepwater Asset Management analyst Gene Munster immediately raised the probability expectation of a Tesla-SpaceX merger from 80% to 90% and predicted that the merger would occur within the next few years.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, but earnings per share fell short of forecasts, causing the stock price to drop more than 5% in after-hours trading, with the market response turning cautious.

Previously, discussion about a Tesla-SpaceX merger mostly remained at the level of speculation, and Musk rarely addressed it directly in public. During this earnings call, when Musk was asked whether a merger between the two companies would make strategic sense, he did not avoid the question but elaborated on their continuously expanding collaboration.

"As you can see in SpaceX’s many collaborations across various fields, the areas of overlap are increasing, especially with the Terafab project, which will be a truly large-scale engineering project," Musk said. He also emphasized that the earnings call was not the appropriate setting to discuss a potential transaction, noting that any advancement “must go through proper procedures” and the relevant matters would be handled by Tesla’s legal team.

Gene Munster posted on X, saying he was surprised by Tesla’s management's willingness to tackle the question head-on, which directly led him to raise his probability assessment. “Before the call, I thought the likelihood of the two companies merging within the next few years was 80%. Now, I raise this assessment to 90%,” he wrote.

Musk detailed several specific areas of cooperation during the earnings call, demonstrating that the integration process has surpassed previous market expectations.

According to Musk, current collaboration covers multiple layers: Grok AI has already been integrated into Tesla vehicles; the digital Optimus robot project is moving forward; Starlink satellite internet will provide connectivity for Cybercab and future Tesla models to solve Robotaxi coverage issues in areas with weak cellular signals.

“We can’t have Robotaxi getting lost in 'Bermuda Triangles' of cellular dead zones,” Musk said. The satellite connection solution is seen as a critical infrastructure safeguard for commercializing Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing network.

Although the merger topic has drawn wide market attention, Tesla's quarterly results themselves present a mixed picture.

Tesla’s Q2 revenue was $28.24 billion, higher than Wall Street’s expected $25.71 billion; 480,126 vehicles were delivered in Q2, up 25% year-over-year, a record high. However, earnings per share were only $0.33, significantly below analysts’ expectations of $0.50.

The earnings miss put obvious pressure on the stock price. Tesla shares closed down 1.30% on Wednesday and fell a further 4.13% after the earnings report was released. According to Benzinga's ratings, Tesla’s momentum score is at the 36th percentile, while its growth score is at the 88th percentile.