Institutions raise 2026 oil deficit estimate to 1.5 million barrels per day, but surplus risk still looms for 2027

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智通财经2026/07/23 10:16

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A survey of analysts shows that the Middle East conflict has doubled the expected 2026 global oil market deficit to 1.5 million barrels per day. Previously, before the outbreak of war with Iran, the market had anticipated a surplus of around 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating a significant reversal in expectations.
The war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting crude oil production and exports in the Gulf region. As a result, institutions have sharply lowered recent supply forecasts. Brent crude oil has risen by about 28% cumulatively in July, and in March it recorded its largest single-month increase since 1988.
However, looking ahead to 2027, the survey expects the market to shift back to a surplus of about 1.9 million barrels per day. The main drivers include a recovery in Gulf exports after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a gradual unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts, continued growth in US and Latin American output, and a downward revision to Chinese oil demand forecasts due to the electrification substitution effect.
Some analysts point out that if navigation through the strait normalizes, global oil inventories could return to their February 2026 peak by the end of Q1 2027, and may even rise to new highs surpassing those seen during the 2020 pandemic. However, this outlook highly depends on the speed of restoration of passage through the strait and on shipping companies’ willingness to resume use of the route.
From a trading perspective, the current market is torn between near-term supply shocks and expectations of surplus further out. Any substantive progress on ceasefires or reopening of the strait could trigger a rapid oil price correction, while renewed geopolitical tensions will continue to support the risk premium.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Institutions raise 2026 oil deficit estimate to 1.5 million barrels per day, but surplus risk still looms for 2027

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