"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": The July Interest Rate Meeting Has Become the Most Difficult to Predict in Recent Years

According to Odaily, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote on July 23 (local time) that the Fed's July policy meeting will be one of the most difficult to predict in recent years. The renewed rise in oil prices, heightened risks from U.S. tariff policies, and some officials shifting to support rate hikes are challenging the consensus to keep rates unchanged.

The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep its policy rate unchanged at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29, with the current rate range remaining at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the outcome of the meeting does not mean internal debates are over, as some officials have already begun paving the way for further rate hikes this year.

At previous meetings, there were clear divisions among the Fed's 18 officials regarding the need for rate hikes this year, with half expecting a hike and the other half seeing no need for adjustments. Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could be the key figure in determining the direction of policy. (WSJ)