U.S. natural gas futures rise about 2% to a two-week high, propelled by surging oil prices and high-temperature forecasts, as bullish momentum outweighs higher-than-expected inventory increases.

智通财经2026/07/23 15:36

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U.S. natural gas futures rose by about 2% on Thursday to a two-week high, with the front-month contract settling near $2.98 per million British thermal units. This was mainly supported by a spillover effect from a roughly 5% surge in oil prices, as well as weather forecasts for the next two weeks that are hotter than previously expected, which should bolster cooling demand.
The spike in oil prices was triggered by a Houthi attack from Yemen on a Saudi oil tanker in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, raising market concerns about broader Middle East supply disruptions, even though the fundamentals for natural gas remain weak.
Analysts expect a 3.5 billion cubic feet increase in natural gas inventories for the week ending July 17, higher than last year's 2.7 billion and the five-year average of 3 billion. In theory, this is a bearish factor, but the market has chosen to ignore it and instead is focusing on expectations of improved demand.
On the supply side, stability persists, with average daily production in the Lower 48 states so far in July at around 110.4 billion cubic feet—slightly above June's 110 billion, but below the record monthly high of 110.6 billion set last December. In terms of demand, institutions estimate average daily demand this week and next at 111 billion cubic feet, an upward revision from the previous day's forecast.
Tropical storm Beryl is currently moving across the Gulf Coast, passing multiple LNG export facilities. So far, it has caused only minor power outages and has not had a significant impact on LNG feed gas flows. Analysts point out that tropical storms typically do not substantially reduce production, as the vast majority of supply originates from inland shale basins.
In the international market, Europe's TTF benchmark gas price is trading near a 42-month high of about $21 per million British thermal units, while Asia's JKM benchmark is at a four-month high of $22 per million British thermal units. High global gas prices provide a favorable environment for the competitiveness of U.S. exports. The medium- and long-term trend of domestic gas prices remains highly dependent on the duration of intense summer heat and the pace of recovery at export terminals.

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U.S. natural gas futures rise about 2% to a two-week high, propelled by surging oil prices and high-temperature forecasts, as bullish momentum outweighs higher-than-expected inventory increases.

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