July 24 Members Morning Brief: Oil Prices Surge Trigger Global Flight to Safety, Major Corporates Beat Earnings Expectations Again

1. [Trump Close to Deciding on Launching Large-Scale Attack] Trump stated that the US military is "fully prepared," and if he gives the order, Israel could join the action "within two minutes." However, the US does not need assistance from others, and if Israel participates, "there would be consequences." Iran "wants negotiations," but he believes Iran is not yet ready to reach an agreement. Reportedly, the Iranian military has developed various response plans for potential new US attacks.

2. [Intel Reports Strong Earnings, AI Far Exceeds Expectations] In Q2, Intel's revenue was nearly 12% higher than analysts' expectations, up 25% year-on-year. Data center and AI business revenues rose 59% year-on-year, with growth nearly four times that of Q1, while foundry business revenue increased 31%, almost double the Q1 growth. Q3 guidance points to a year-on-year increase of 15% to 23%, at least nearly 5% higher than market expectations and up to more than 10% higher. The CEO said AI is driving "unprecedented" demand for computing power. The stock price spiked more than 10% after hours.

3. [ECB to Hold Rates Steady in July] The European Central Bank warned that the full impact of energy shocks caused by the Middle East conflict on inflation has not yet been fully passed through. The policy committee will closely monitor the evolving situation and maintain flexibility in adjusting tools. Deutsche Bank expects the ECB to resume raising rates in September.

4. [US Treasury Yields Soar! 10-Year Breaks 4.7%, an 18-Month High] The sudden escalation of the Middle East situation pushed Brent crude to briefly surpass $100 per barrel. US initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly, and tech giants issued large amounts of long-term bonds to finance AI infrastructure, together putting pressure on the bond market.

5. [Plunging Tesla and Oracle] Tesla has the highest short interest among the "Magnificent Seven" US tech stocks, with about 3% of its free float being shorted. Its Q2 profit was far below expectations, and the stock price plunged 15% in a single day. On July 23, Oracle's share price closed down more than 4% to $120, having fallen more than 37% year-to-date and hitting a 52-week low. All buyers in the past year are now holding losses on their positions. Investor concerns about the return cycle on AI investments are rising.