Jim Cramer Shares His Framework for Telling a Buyable Crash From a Real One

Jim Cramer laid out a framework for judging stock market crashes on Mad Money on Thursday. He said most selloffs are mechanical malfunctions worth buying, while only a handful pose real economic threats. Cramer, the CNBC host who has traded through four decades of market cycles, compared three events to make his case. He cited Black Monday in 1987, the 2010 flash crash and the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Mechanical Selloffs Look Scarier Than They Are Cramer pointed to the Dow Jones Industrial Averages 508-point drop on October 19, 1987, as his clearest example. That 22.6% single-day plunge became known as Black Monday. He blamed a flawed hedging strategy called portfolio insurance for turning a bad week into a historic crash. The strategy used futures contracts to try to cap losses automatically. He reached a similar conclusion about the 2010 flash crash. The Dow fell nearly 1,000 points in about 36 minutes on May 6, 2010. It recovered most of that loss the same day. Cramer said a nearly identical pattern played out during the markets sharp opening plunge in August 2015. He blamed futures-market malfunctions, not weakening fundamentals, for both events. Systemic Crises Demand a Different Read Cramer called the 2007-2009 financial crisis a different animal entirely. The Dow fell from its October 2007 peak above 14,000 to roughly 6,470 by early March 2009. That marked a decline of more than 54%. The index did not fully recover until 2013. Cramer, whose own market calls have had mixed results recently, said the difference comes down to real economic damage. He cited failing banks, rising job losses and a Federal Reserve that moved too slowly at first. He credited the Feds later shift toward aggressive intervention with helping the market eventually find its footing. Cramers takeaway is straightforward. Investors should check whether a selloff coincides with genuine economic deterioration before assuming the worst. Mechanical declines have historically reversed within months, while systemic ones can take years.