Oil prices are expected to surge over 10% this week due to Red Sea tanker attacks and Kazakhstan's production cuts.

1. During Friday's Asian session, international oil prices saw a slight pullback, but are still expected to record significant gains for the week overall. Brent crude oil has risen 13.9% so far this week, and WTI is up 12.2% so far this week. On Thursday, Brent crude settled up 7%, closing above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May. Currently, Brent crude is trading near $100.33 per barrel.2. Geopolitical risks are the main driving force behind this week's increase in oil prices. Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising concerns in the market that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the world's second-largest oil shipping route, could face closure. U.S. President Trump stated that if there are further attacks, he will “hold Iran accountable.”3. IG market analysts pointed out, “The noose on global energy supply routes is tightening once again.” With shipping in the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted by the U.S.-Iran conflict, the worsening situation in the Red Sea means that the two most important global energy corridors are simultaneously under threat.4. On the supply side, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that due to a suspected Ukrainian drone attack shutting down the country’s main Black Sea export terminal, oil companies have temporarily reduced production. Although the exact scale was not disclosed, sources said that production at the country’s largest oil field has been cut by more than half.5. Geopolitical risk premium remains the core pricing factor for oil in the near term, as the market is closely watching the actual status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.