Is Bitcoin selling pressure easing? Realized losses have fallen 56% from the peak, but demand recovery remains insufficient

According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that during the current Bitcoin bear market phase, holders have realized record-high losses. In February 2026, the realized loss 30-day moving average (30DMA) peaked at $1.37 billion, which is 19% higher than the 2022 cycle peak of $1.15 billion. Data shows that since this February peak, realized Bitcoin losses have decreased by 56.5%, currently down to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, realized profits have only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that the sell-off pressure driven by losses has clearly weakened, but the market has not yet seen a sustained recovery in demand, as losses are declining faster than the recovery in profits.

From a historical cycle perspective, on February 20, 2026, realized losses reached $1.37 billion, marking a new historical high for this indicator. The highest realized loss during the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, which occurred on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin’s realized profit 30DMA was $257 million, down 92.7% from the $3.51 billion peak set on December 10, 2024, and down 77.7% from the level when Bitcoin touched its historical high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. This indicator reached a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, subsequently rebounding by 34.7%.

Axel Adler noted that profit-taking sell pressure has dropped sharply, and the amount of coins sold for profit remains at a relatively low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean sellers are entirely exhausted, nor does it indicate that market demand has fully recovered. If realized profits continue to rise to above $400 to $500 million, it would more clearly confirm a sustained improvement in the market.

Additionally, the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has rebounded from the June low of 0.26 to 0.43, but it remains below the 1.0 level. According to the analyst, although the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds 2022’s, relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin’s all-time high, there have been 190 out of the past 291 days where realized losses exceeded realized profits. Axel Adler warned that if the profit/loss ratio falls below 0.26 again, accompanied by prices dropping below the June 30 cycle low of $58,535, it could indicate further intensification of market pressure.