Brent crude surpasses the $100 mark, with both major energy chokepoints simultaneously under threat and tariff uncertainties further disrupting global supply chains

(1) Brent crude oil futures have surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while European natural gas prices have simultaneously reached their highest level since March. Investors are focusing on the actual extent of Middle Eastern oil and gas supply disruptions, especially the navigational status of two key energy transport bottlenecks. (2) Attacks by the Houthi armed group could prevent the normal passage through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, further threatening this energy route which ultimately leads to the Strait of Hormuz. With both crucial chokepoints at risk, the market is being forced to reprice the energy security premium. (3) The prospect of a US-Iran peace agreement remains distant. While investors monitor the situation in the Gulf, they must also contend with added uncertainty from trade policy — the United States has imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, including the European Union, injecting further volatility into already strained global supply chains.