Analysis: Bitcoin's profitable supply approaches 60%, but confirmation of the bull market is still premature

According to Odaily, the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market. The market still faces the risk of another pullback.

CryptoQuant data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit (Supply in Profit) has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market with a price higher than the cost basis. Compared to the low point of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, it has clearly rebounded, and is now close to 60%. However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires ongoing validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met:

First, the 30-day simple moving average of the long-term holders’ profitability indicator (LTH-SOPR) needs to consistently remain above 1 and not fall below it for several weeks;

Second, the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit needs to remain steadily above 64%.

Analysts note that there has already been a "false breakout" during this cycle. From April 28 to June 1 this year, the LTH-SOPR average remained above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and at the same time, the supply in profit once rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently pulled back again. Currently, the 30-day SMA indicator for long-term holders has been below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, which still serves as a key risk signal regarding the strength of the market's recovery.

Although the proportion of BTC supply in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation of long-term holders’ behavior and changes in profitability structure before it can be determined whether the current rebound is truly turning into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)