US Treasury Yield Breaks Trump Threshold, TACO Expected to Rise Again, But This Time May Be Different

BlockBeats News, July 24th. Influenced by both macroeconomics and geopolitical conflicts, the US Treasury yield has recently seen a significant increase. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.69%, reaching its highest level since January 2025, a rare level seen after Trump's second term.

Previously, in trade disputes or geopolitical events, Trump often "backed down from the cliff" when the yield surged, softening policies through delays, waivers, and other means to appease the market. The market refers to this pattern as "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out).

However, it remains to be seen whether Trump will repeat the TACO this time.

On the one hand, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced on July 23rd local time that it has decided to impose a 10%-12.5% tariff on 60 economies. On the other hand, the current rise in yields is mainly due to geopolitical conflicts. Even if Trump is willing to compromise, the hardline stance of Iran may not be receptive. Additionally, with the midterm elections approaching, Trump needs to maintain a strong image in foreign relations to present a "victorious" posture to domestic voters. Therefore, he is finding it difficult to take the initiative on the Iran issue, and the TACO maneuvering space is also constrained by domestic electoral considerations.

In conclusion, against a backdrop of domestic and international challenges, how Trump will adjust his policy remains a point of interest for the future.