Indian Rupee: Oil surge offsets inflow support – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists highlight that the Indian Rupee (INR) stayed defensive as Brent Oil rose to $100, countering support from recent policy steps to attract capital inflows. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened in onshore and offshore markets with USD/INR near record highs, while inflows of about $20bn were reported. Higher Oil prices and a rebound in 1Y INR OIS to 6.05% dominate sentiment.

Rupee pressured by Oil and rates

"In contrast, the INR remained on the defensive as Brent surged to $100/bbl, offsetting support from recent policy measures aimed at attracting capital inflows."

"The RBI stepped up intervention in both onshore and offshore markets as USD/INR traded close to the record highs in May."

"The central bank noted that measures announced alongside the June MPC meeting had generated around $20bn of inflows through FCNR deposits, external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency funding."

"However, rising oil prices have overshadowed the positive flow story."

"Reflecting this shift, the 1Y INR OIS has rebounded to 6.05%, retracing nearly 25bp from the post-RBI lows."