Galaxy Research believes the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 has dropped to 30%

Foresight News reported that Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, stated in an article that he has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act being enacted by 2026 from the previous 50% to 30%. Thorn noted that although the comprehensive text of the bill was officially released this Wednesday—consisting of 616 pages and 104 provisions—there is a significant vote shortfall at present. On the Republican side, senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against the bill, and McConnell has not voted since being hospitalized in June, leaving about 50 reliable votes, which is still short of the 60-vote threshold required to overcome the lengthy debate. On the Democratic side, seven senators who previously participated in negotiations issued a joint statement, saying the current text is "inadequate," particularly opposing the mechanism that only allows the Department of Justice to enforce the bill’s ethics provisions and the 2029 sunset clause; meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren directly stated that the bill "should be rejected."

Regarding the legislative timetable, Thorn believes the effective deadline for progress is July 30 (Wednesday), rather than the Senate’s officially announced recess date of August 7, reasoning that procedural steps require several days. He said that if the bill does not pass the Senate before the recess, its prospects for becoming law by 2026 will be significantly reduced.

Note: At the time of writing, the probability of the "CLARITY Act being signed into law this year" on Polymarket stands at 38%.