AI trading divergence emerges as the 30-day correlation between major U.S. capital expenditure firms and the semiconductor index approaches zero.

BlockBeats News, July 24 — Data shows that the 30-day correlation between major U.S. capital expenditure companies and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) has dropped to nearly zero, the lowest level in at least 4.5 years. This is a sharp decline from +0.78 in April and well below the average of +0.60 since 2022.

Since early June, semiconductor stocks have risen while shares of AI infrastructure spending giants have fallen, indicating that investors no longer view chip manufacturers and hyperscale data center builders as the same trade. Chipmakers are benefiting from AI demand, while spending giants are facing doubts about returns.

Analysts believe that the next phase of the AI trade will be determined by profitability rather than investment scale, and hyperscalers need to prove that their massive spending can generate sufficient returns.