Caixin Futures: The ferrous sector trades at low levels, with tight coking coal supply providing bottom support

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智通财经2026/07/24 16:51

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Steel prices remain in low-level oscillation, with pig iron production continuing to decline and Tangshan’s production restrictions leading to ongoing supply contraction. However, demand expectations remain weak, putting pressure on upward price movement. In terms of capital flow, the top twenty positions in the October rebar and coil contracts mainly saw both long and short increases, with a slightly larger increase on the long side, and overall positions slightly favoring longs. Technically, the October contract saw increased positions as prices fluctuated and closed lower. Pay attention to the support at 3,065 yuan per ton below, and resistance around the 40-day moving average above. From a valuation perspective, steel mill losses continue to expand, and futures have consistently traded below the valley power cost of East China electric arc furnaces. Current valuations are not high. Inventory pressure and ongoing weak realities continue to suppress pricing, but negative feedback risks are limited due to disruptions in coking coal supply, so short-term steel prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels.
Iron ore prices oscillate at low levels. Global shipments and arrivals have risen significantly compared to the previous period, but actual shipments are still subject to verification due to disruptions. Pig iron production continues to decline, and rigid demand maintains a downward trend. In terms of capital flow, the top twenty positions in the September contract mainly saw reductions in both long and short positions, with a slightly larger reduction on the short side. Funds have begun to increase positions in distant contracts, showing early signs of rolling positions to later months. Technically, the contract saw reduced positions with prices oscillating and closing lower. Pay attention to resistance at the 40-day moving average above and support at 735 yuan per ton below. Supply disruptions have not fully subsided; rising crude prices have pushed up expectations for shipping costs, providing bottom support. However, with pig iron not yet stabilizing at lower levels, there is insufficient upward momentum, so short-term prices are likely to maintain low-level oscillation.
Coking coal prices are fluctuating at low levels, with relatively slow resumption of production in Shanxi coal mines. The tight supply situation at the origin is unlikely to change in the short term. Coke spot prices have entered a round of price reduction, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. However, coking plants’ raw material inventories have declined, so restocking expectations still exist and spot prices may remain weak but stable in the short term. In terms of capital flow, the top twenty positions in the September contract are mainly reducing longs, and rolling to new contracts is underway. Technically, the market shows a pattern where increasing positions drive price rises and decreasing positions lead to declines, showing a long-dominated structure. Watch for resistance at the 40-day moving average above and support at 1,268 yuan per ton below. Supply disruptions at the origin provide bottom support, but weak downstream demand limits upside potential. It is recommended to configure coking coal as a long position on the raw material end.
Coke’s fundamentals remain weak, with coking plants maintaining slight profits and overall stable production. Pig iron output continues to fall, and the expansion of steel mill losses prompts most plants to employ volume-control strategies for coke, shifting supply and demand toward looseness. The main futures contract is trading at a significant discount to spot, and valuation is relatively low. As steel mill losses continue to expand and the second round of coke price cuts begins, the futures market lacks upward momentum in the short term, and valuation faces downward risk, though the large basis may limit downside room.
Silicomanganese continues weak oscillation, with fundamentals maintaining a weak and stable pattern. Manganese ore port inventories are down week-on-week, but demand remains sluggish. Producers are keeping operating rates low, while intraplant inventories continue to rise, resulting in overall weak dynamics. In terms of capital flow, the top twenty positions in the September contract mainly increased both long and short positions, with a slightly larger increase in longs, indicating intensified speculative activity.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Caixin Futures: The ferrous sector trades at low levels, with tight coking coal supply providing bottom support

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