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Brent crude briefly surpassed $100 before pulling back, but weekly gains soared by 10% as Red Sea supply disruption risks support prices.

Brent crude briefly surpassed $100 before pulling back, but weekly gains soared by 10% as Red Sea supply disruption risks support prices.

智通财经智通财经2026/07/24 17:26
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  1. Brent crude oil futures fell by more than 3% on Friday, experiencing profit-taking after briefly surpassing the $100 mark. However, the contract is still on track for a sharp rise of around 10% this week, as disruptions in Red Sea energy transport and escalating US-Iran tensions continue to be key supportive factors.
  2. Analysts point out that a combination of factors—including the US's ongoing attacks on Iran, increased intervention by the Houthi forces in the Red Sea shipping lane, and the supply suspension from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium—has led to renewed pressure on the crude supply side, with price increases fundamentally driven by market conditions.
  3. The current level of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is approaching the March peak. This strait handles about one third of the world's seaborne oil trade, so any obstruction has a direct impact on the global crude oil supply structure.
  4. Although a technical correction occurred on Friday, the geopolitical risk premium has not faded. Concerns over further tightening in supply still dominate the market, and in the short term, oil price trends will be highly dependent on developments in the Middle East and the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz.
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