Oil Market Focus Shifts From Hormuz Reopening to Supply Resilience -- Market Talk

0751 GMT - The oil market is increasingly focused on the resilience of physical crude flows rather than whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Rystad Energy says. While supply disruptions since March have been absorbed through inventory drawdowns, alternative export routes and spare production capacity are diminishing, leaving the market more exposed to prolonged outages. "The direction of prices will ultimately depend on three factors: whether crude flows into Asia can be maintained, whether refiners can adapt to a changing mix of crude grades and how geopolitical developments unfold," says Janiv Shah, VP of commodity markets. Rystad's base case is an interim deal that restores trade but stops short of resolving the nuclear issue or curbing Iran's maritime leverage. Markets would still price in a geopolitical-risk premium while Gulf oil inventories are cleared, export operations recover and confidence in shipping routes is rebuilt. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 24, 2026 03:55 ET (07:55 GMT)