High temperatures drive demand expectations, pushing US natural gas futures to a two-week high

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智通财经2026/07/24 18:06

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U.S. natural gas futures rose about 1% on Friday to hit a two-week high, mainly supported by weather forecasts showing rising temperatures over the next two weeks and cooling demand exceeding previous expectations. The August contract settled at $2.953 per million British thermal units.
Although prices were up about 1% this week, the previous four weeks had seen a cumulative decline of about 10%, making the current rebound still a technical correction. The near-month August contract’s premium over September turned into a discount over the past two days, indicating that the market believes supply in August will be sufficient to meet summer peak demand.
On the supply side, average daily output across the Lower 48 states in July so far has been about 110.4 billion cubic feet, slightly higher than June levels but still below the record monthly peak set in December 2025. Analysts estimate that as of the week ending July 24, inventories were about 6.6% above normal levels.
Meteorological forecasts show that temperatures will mostly remain above normal levels through August 8, keeping power generation gas demand elevated. Regarding liquefied natural gas exports, flows from the main export terminals have slightly declined so far in July, to about 17.2 billion cubic feet per day, mainly due to maintenance at the Freeport, Texas facility.
In terms of global gas prices, the Dutch benchmark in Europe remains near a 42-month high of about $21 per million British thermal units, while the Asian benchmark is about $22, at a four-month high. The significant price gap between the U.S. and Eurasian markets continues to provide structural support for exports, but ample domestic inventories are limiting the price gains.

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High temperatures drive demand expectations, pushing US natural gas futures to a two-week high

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