Bitget UEX Daily | US-Iran Halt Mutual Strikes, Oil Prices Plunge Sharply; US Tech Earnings Week Begins with Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, SK Hynix and Others Set to Report (July 27, 2026)

I. Hot News Highlights

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Oil price decline eases rate-hike pressure; market focuses on future policy path

• Following the pause in Middle East conflict, crude oil prices fell sharply, cooling earlier rate-hike expectations fueled by the oil surge.
• Markets continue to assess the inflation trajectory and the Fed’s next moves. Market Impact: Lower energy prices help alleviate short-term inflation worries, providing support for rate-sensitive assets and lifting risk appetite.

International Commodities

US-Iran halt mutual strikes; oil prices fall sharply

• The United States and Iran have paused mutual military strikes for consecutive days, with both sides sending de-escalation signals that boost ceasefire negotiation expectations.
• Brent and WTI crude prices dropped significantly, reducing previous geopolitical risk premiums. Market Impact: Rapid dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums and lower energy prices directly ease inflation concerns, benefiting risk assets while pressuring safe-haven demand.

II. Market Review

Commodities Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,109/oz, +1.36%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $60.0/oz, +2.45%
• WTI Crude: Approximately $85.4/bbl, -4.42%
• Brent Crude: Approximately $82.68/bbl, -4.33%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.7, -0.3%

Driver Analysis: The US-Iran pause in mutual strikes significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, with the sharp drop in crude prices as the dominant factor. Gold and silver showed divergent performance amid falling oil prices and recovering risk appetite, with silver’s industrial attributes providing support. The dollar remained relatively stable. Institutional views suggest short-term commodities are primarily driven by geopolitical de-escalation; lower energy prices help ease inflation and rate-hike expectations, creating a positive linkage of oil decline → cooling inflation concerns → support for risk assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $65,195, +1.11%
• ETH: Approximately $1,974, +3.65%
• Crypto Total Market Cap: Approximately $2.31 trillion, +1.7%
• Market Liquidations: 24h total liquidations approximately $213 million, with short liquidations at $160 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $65,139. Downside long liquidation pressure has largely been released, while significant short liquidation clusters are concentrated near $65,700–$66,000. Further upside could trigger short covering and amplify gains. The $63,800–$64,200 zone was a prior major long liquidation dense area that has undergone substantial cleanup. Short-term leverage focus has shifted upward; watch the $65,800–$67,100 range for potential short liquidation cascades and post-breakout sustainability.

Driver Analysis: Middle East conflict de-escalation and oil price declines boosted risk appetite, allowing the crypto market to recover in tandem. BTC held key ranges and edged higher, while ETH showed relatively stronger elasticity. Improved macro conditions and capital flows jointly support the short-term trend. Institutional consensus points to range-bound recovery, though ETF flow fluctuations and leverage liquidations indicate continued caution. Geopolitical recurrence remains a potential sentiment risk.

US Equity Index Performance

As of last Friday’s close:

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 51,947, +0.46%
• SP 500: Closed at approximately 7,412, +0.05%
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 24,976, -0.64%, with tech sector still under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $206.84, -0.92%
• AAPL: $333.02, +3.53%
• MSFT: $381.70, +0.03%
• GOOGL: $319.74, +0.65%
• AMZN: $232.11, -0.66%
• META: $595.19, -1.80%
• TSLA: $313.03, -2.08%

Performance Summary Driver Analysis: The Mag 7 showed clear divergence. Apple surged 3.53% against the trend, providing key support; Microsoft and Google closed slightly higher. Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla recorded declines, with Tesla posting a relatively larger drop. Lingering concerns over AI capital expenditure continue to pressure high-valuation growth stocks, while geopolitical de-escalation and lower oil prices offered some support. The divergence reflects a market shift from pure thematic trading toward re-pricing of corporate fundamentals and capital spending efficiency.

Sector Movers Observation

Semiconductor/Memory Sector Sharp Pullback (Leading Decliner)

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology (MU) -6.99%, Intel (INTC) -7.89%, Western Digital (WDC) approx. -6.9%, Marvell (MRVL) approx. -7.3%.
• Drivers: Significant profit-taking after earlier AI demand-driven gains, combined with market concerns over the pace of returns on capital expenditure. The high beta of memory and semiconductor sub-sectors amplified the decline, making it one of the largest daily percentage losers.

Optical Communication / Related Tech Significant Declines

• Representative Stocks: Coherent (COHR) approx. -9.8%, Lumentum (LITE) approx. -8.5%.
• Drivers: Cooling enthusiasm for AI optical modules and interconnect themes prompted capital withdrawal from high-elasticity segments.

Software Selected Growth Stocks Relatively Resilient or Higher

• Representative Stocks: ServiceNow (NOW) approx. +7.4%; selected software and services names performed better.
• Drivers: Amid concerns over heavy AI hardware investment, some capital rotated toward software and cloud-service related names, resulting in divergence.

Energy Sector Steady

• Representative Stocks: ExxonMobil (XOM) +0.03%, Chevron (CVX) +0.19%.
• Drivers: Friday’s close did not fully reflect weekend conflict de-escalation; the sector remained relatively resilient. Post-weekend sharp oil declines may pressure Monday’s open.

III. In-Depth US Equity Analysis

1. Intel (INTC) – Strong Q2 Beat, AI-Driven CPU Revival

Event Overview: Intel reported Q2 revenue of $16.13 billion, up 25% YoY (strongest growth in 15 years), with adjusted EPS of $0.42 (well above the $0.21 estimate). Data Center AI revenue reached $6.26 billion, up 59% YoY; Client Computing grew 13%; Foundry grew 31%. Operating margin improved sharply from negative territory a year ago to around 17%, with operating cash flow surging over 240% YoY. Q3 guidance of $15.8–$16.8 billion revenue and $0.38 adjusted EPS both exceeded expectations. The CEO emphasized that AI is driving unprecedented compute demand and that 2027 capex will be significantly higher than 2026. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view this as a genuine turnaround signal, with AI demand significantly reviving the server CPU business and delivering strong operating leverage. Some analysts (including Seeking Alpha views) note that the Foundry business remains heavily loss-making and highly dependent on internal demand, with limited external customer progress. Current valuation already prices in Foundry break-even and sustained high growth, leading to “Hold” ratings. Wall Street is also closely watching 18A process progress, potential major external customers (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon), and the impact of sharply higher capex on free cash flow. Investment Implications: Results and guidance validate AI-driven demand for CPUs, improving the medium-term thesis. However, close monitoring of external Foundry order conversion and capex return timelines is required to avoid valuation overstretch risks.

2. Tesla (TSLA) – Record Deliveries but Sharp Profit Decline

Event Overview: Tesla posted record Q2 revenue of $28.24 billion (up 26% YoY) and record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. However, adjusted EPS came in at only $0.33 (well below the ~$0.53 estimate). Operating income fell 57% YoY to $398 million, with operating margin collapsing from 4.1% a year ago to 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative by approximately $1.09 billion as capex surged 142% YoY to $5.79 billion, primarily for AI, Robotaxi, and Optimus. Regulatory credit revenue dropped 67%. Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 GWh. Elon Musk reiterated Robotaxi and Optimus progress on the call, but the market remains highly skeptical of timeline delivery. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe strong deliveries cannot mask the core issues of deteriorating profits and cash flow. Heavy AI and robotics investment has significantly pressured near-term profitability. Analysts note that valuation already embeds very high growth expectations; failure to commercialize Robotaxi and Optimus on schedule would pose material downside risk. Some highlight the energy business as a bright spot, but overall focus remains on return conversion after the current high-capex period. Investment Implications: Near-term volatility remains elevated. Key catalysts include actual Robotaxi operating miles, FSD subscription growth, and any adjustments to full-year capex guidance to assess whether the AI narrative can translate into sustainable profits.

3. Google (GOOGL) – Cloud Surge vs. Further Capex Hike Trade-off

Event Overview: Alphabet reported Q2 revenue of approximately $119.8 billion (up ~24% YoY). Google Cloud revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% YoY, with sharply higher operating income and cloud backlog rising to $514 billion. However, the company raised full-year capex guidance to $195–205 billion (from the prior $180–190 billion range). Quarterly capex was about $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative by approximately $5.9 billion. Management emphasized that demand continues to outstrip supply and that both owned and leased capacity will continue to expand. Market Interpretation: Institutions acknowledge the strength of cloud and AI infrastructure demand but worry that repeated large capex increases will extend the return cycle and pressure near-term cash flow. Analysts are focused on search advertising resilience, TPU sales cadence, and whether 2027 capex will climb further. Sentiment has shifted from “growth confirmation” to “investment efficiency validation.” Investment Implications: Long-term cloud and AI ecosystem advantages remain clear, but near-term tracking of the match between capex and revenue conversion, as well as the speed of backlog-to-revenue realization, is essential.

4. AMD – Cerebras Partnership Advances AI Inference Disaggregation

Event Overview: AMD announced a partnership with Cerebras Systems to combine Helios rack-scale systems with Cerebras wafer-scale chips, launching a joint ultra-low-latency inference solution expected later this year via Cerebras Cloud. AMD chips focus on prompt processing and large context windows, while Cerebras emphasizes high-bandwidth token generation, claiming higher tokens-per-watt performance. AMD had previously announced plans to supply up to 2 GW of compute to Anthropic and invest up to $5 billion. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as evidence of the “disaggregation” trend in AI workloads, helping AMD differentiate in the inference market versus Nvidia. Analysts will watch commercialization timelines, real-world performance comparisons, and conversion into sustained orders. A multi-supplier landscape is seen as favorable for AMD over the medium to long term. Investment Implications: An important vehicle for diversified AI compute exposure; focus on product commercialization progress and customer expansion.

5. Nvidia (NVDA) – $1.5 Billion Prepayment Supports US Advanced Packaging

Event Overview: Nvidia entered a multi-year strategic partnership with Amkor Technology, providing a $1.5 billion prepayment to support expansion of advanced semiconductor packaging and test capacity in the United States (particularly Arizona). The collaboration covers joint development of packaging technologies for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms, including high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens Nvidia’s control over the advanced packaging supply chain and its US domestic capacity footprint, aligning with continued AI infrastructure expansion and geopolitical supply-chain security needs. Analysts will monitor capacity ramp timelines (Amkor’s project expected to begin production in 2028) and potential impacts on overall AI hardware costs and delivery schedules. Investment Implications: Long-term positive for the AI compute leader’s supply-chain resilience; watch packaging capacity release and potential margin support.

IV. Market Project Updates

1. Iranian army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia told state media that retaliatory attacks have been halted because the US did not strike the country over the past two nights; Iranian operations are currently paused. Emkay Global’s Madhavi Arora noted that Brent’s rebound is no longer driven solely by known Hormuz risks and the latest Red Sea disruptions. Visible Hormuz shipping has fallen to near zero, global inventories are depleted, and new supply interruptions are intensifying tensions. In addition, Russian fuel exports remain constrained after months of Ukrainian drone attacks, while Kazakhstan has begun cutting production following the outage at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export terminal. The supply side is facing multiple tightening pressures.
2. According to information from the GitHub Trending page publicly shared by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, Block’s open-source collaboration platform Buzz, permissionlesstech’s decentralized Bluetooth chat app BitChat, and citrolabs’ AI browser ego-lite entered the global top-three trending repositories today.
3. Data: Tokens including SUI, EIGEN, and FF face large unlocks this week, with SUI unlocks valued at nearly $10 million.
4. According to Fortune, the Trump administration has invested approximately $26.7 billion in equity or equity-like instruments across at least four agencies (Commerce, Defense, Energy, and the US International Development Finance Corporation) in Intel, MP Materials, Vulcan Elements, xLight, and several quantum computing companies. This includes the Commerce Department’s passive stake of about 9.9% in Intel, whose market value has risen from roughly $8.9 billion to about $42 billion.
5. Nvidia (NVDA.O) is reportedly in talks to provide approximately $250 billion in financial guarantees to OpenAI to support a massive data-center project—potentially one of the largest financial transactions in the US AI boom.
6. South Korea’s largest trading company POSCO International is collaborating with LG Group’s technology unit LG CNS to tokenize real commercial invoices using the Injective network.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Macro Data Outlook

PAnews reports that the triple shock of surging energy prices, new US tariffs, and soaring AI capital expenditure has rekindled global investors’ inflation fears. This week the Nasdaq led declines, with tech stocks absorbing dual pressure from macro and fundamental factors throughout the week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5% on Friday, with memory chips hit hardest. Investors remain cautious ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting, with many expecting a potentially hawkish surprise. Key items to watch this week (all times UTC+8):

• Tuesday 20:15 – US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11
• Thursday 02:00 – Fed FOMC interest rate decision
• Thursday 02:30 – Fed Chair press conference on monetary policy
• Thursday 17:00 – Eurozone Q2 GDP (preliminary YoY), Eurozone June Unemployment Rate, Eurozone July Industrial Confidence, Eurozone July Economic Sentiment
• Thursday 19:00 – Bank of England rate decision, minutes, and Monetary Policy Report
• Thursday 19:30 – BoE Governor Bailey monetary policy press conference
• Thursday 20:30 – US Initial Jobless Claims, US June Core PCE Price Index (YoY/MoM), US June Personal Spending MoM, US Q2 Real GDP Annualized QoQ (preliminary) / Real Personal Consumption / Core PCE Annualized QoQ (preliminary)
• Friday 17:00 – Eurozone July CPI (preliminary YoY/MoM)
• Friday 21:45 – US July Chicago PMI
• Friday 22:00 – US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final), US July 1-year Inflation Expectations (final)

This week features a dense slate of tech earnings, with Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Qualcomm (QCOM.O), SK Hynix and others scheduled to report.

Institutional Views

Investment bank analysts believe the US-Iran pause in mutual strikes has significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The sharp drop in crude prices helps ease inflation and rate-hike expectations, providing short-term support for risk-asset sentiment. Friday’s mixed US equity close shows the tech sector remains under pressure from earlier AI spending concerns, yet improved macro conditions offer room for recovery. The crypto market is following the rebound in risk appetite. Overall strategy recommendations focus on monitoring the inflation path after the oil decline and progress in geopolitical negotiations, while maintaining flexible allocation and remaining cautious on the return validation of high-capex tech names.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.