Bitunix Analyst: The Dual Test of Super Central Bank Week and AI Earnings, the Market is Actually Trading Whether "Inflation Risk Becomes Institutionalized"

BlockBeats news, July 27, this week the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively announce their interest rate decisions. The US second quarter GDP, core PCE, and the financial reports of several major tech giants will also be released simultaneously, allowing monetary policy, economic growth, and corporate earnings to face market scrutiny all at once. With the interplay of energy prices, tariff policies, and AI capital expenditures, the market is reassessing the global cost of capital for the future rather than simply betting on rate cuts or hikes.

Recently, although there have been brief signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the US and Iran have continued consultations about the Hormuz Strait through Oman, and Iran has expressed its willingness to maintain ceasefire and negotiations. However, the risks to shipping through the Hormuz Strait and Red Sea have not been fully resolved, and the Houthi armed group continues to threaten energy transportation, leaving uncertainty around crude oil supply. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy released a grid emergency declaration for 17 states due to extreme heat, again highlighting that energy demand remains high and energy prices may still be an important factor driving inflation going forward.

On the other hand, Trump has once again expanded the range of tariff pressures, issuing a 301 investigation threat to the European Union and continuing to face legal challenges, indicating that uncertainty regarding global supply chain costs continues to build up. The tech industry presents another form of inflationary pressure: Qualcomm has raised chip prices; competition between AI models continues to intensify; Samsung, SK Hynix, and NVIDIA are expanding their investments, showing that the global race for AI infrastructure has not cooled down. However, the market's focus has gradually shifted from "how much is invested" to "when enough returns can be generated". This week, the heavyweight financial reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Qualcomm will directly decide whether AI capital expenditures can still support the currently high valuations of tech stocks.

Therefore, what the market truly needs to verify this week is not only whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but also whether Waller will further emphasize the risks of high inflation, and whether corporate earnings can prove that AI investments are turning into profitable capacity. If the core PCE and GDP continue to show resilience, the Federal Reserve will have more room to keep interest rates high for longer or even reconsider the possibility of rate hikes; conversely, if economic data begins to slow while companies continue to expand capital expenditures, the market's attention will shift back to corporate cash flow and valuation correction pressures.

This week will become an important watershed for global asset pricing in the second half of the year, determining whether capital will continue to chase high-growth narratives or return to valuing cash flow and fundamentals.