Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at ING, noted in a report that although oil prices have retreated after the US and Iran paused hostilities, the euro still faces the risk of another decline. He stated that, given the lack of clear signs of de-escalation, the euro rising above $1.14 appears “somewhat overly optimistic.” Pesole remarked, “Any new military strike could quickly push Brent crude prices back up to $100 per barrel and send the euro below $1.1380.” He also pointed out th

ING foreign exchange strategist Francesco Pesole pointed out in a report that although oil prices have retreated after the US and Iran paused attacks, the euro still faces the risk of another decline. He stated that, given the lack of clear signs of easing in the situation, it appears "somewhat overly optimistic" for the euro to rise above $1.14. Pesole said: "Any new military strike could quickly push Brent crude oil prices back above $100 per barrel and cause the euro to fall below $1.1380." He also noted that potential underlying US dollar buying in the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday could also put pressure on the euro against the dollar. In addition, unless tensions ease quickly, high natural gas prices are another reason to remain cautious about the euro.