From a technical perspective, the long-short watershed this week is at $4067/oz. The first resistance at $4152/oz is both a psychological mark and an extension of last week's rebound high, while the second resistance at $4251/oz would require a dovish surprise from the Fed
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
and a full cooling off to act as a dual catalyst to reach it, which is more of a "low probability but large range
"
distant target.
The first support below, at $3968/oz, is the initial buffer after breaking below the $4000 mark. Holding this can maintain the $4067~
3968
/oz trading range. The second support, at $3883/oz, is close to the May low of $3955/oz and falls into deeper waters; if lost, the technicals open a new round of downside, targeting the key level at $3800/oz.
Hong Jie
Certified Senior Gold Investment Analyst
Short-term trend may still be in a low-volatility consolidation range
From a news perspective, the cooling situation in the Middle East has brought noticeable volatility to global risk assets and commodity markets. Due to a rapid decline in risk aversion, whether the recent short-term rebound in international gold prices can continue depends on three key variables: 1) whether tensions in the Middle East can truly ease, rather than pause temporarily; 2) whether this week's Fed policy decision can further clarify the path ahead; and 3) how the market re-prices inflation trends and interest rate midpoints.
Currently, the consensus in the market is that the interest rate decision to be announced early Thursday (Eighth Time Zone) will keep the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. The policy signals released will directly determine the next trajectory for international gold prices.
From a technical perspective,
International gold prices may still be in a short-term low-volatility consolidation area, with a need for periodic rebound; key support is concentrated at $3950~$3920/oz. If this support zone breaks, a new round of short-term declines is likely.
On the upside, close attention needs to be paid to the strong resistance zone around $4270~$4300/oz. If there is a breakout, a new round of rebound may begin.
Liu Shikai
Zhaojin Refining
Focus on the important $4180 resistance level
International oil price volatility has further heightened market inflation concerns and led to shifting expectations for Fed monetary policy, driving US Treasury yields and the dollar to stay strong—currently the core factor capping gold's upside.
The Fed will hold a policy meeting this week, with the general expectation of rates remaining unchanged. Remarks from Fed Chair Walsh after the meeting will guide the short-term direction for international gold prices, which are likely to keep consolidating at low levels overall.
From the perspective of market support, the capital environment has gradually recovered recently, with ETF holdings showing an overall increasing trend.
Technically, support at the $4000/oz mark is solid and the short-term trend will focus on the break of the key resistance. If international gold prices effectively break the important $4180/oz resistance, further upside may open.
Liang Jinhai
Independent Analyst
Gold price awaits guidance from policy meeting
Gold rebounded near $4100/oz in Monday's Asian session, as the ease in Middle East tensions and falling oil prices alleviated rate hike concerns. However, from a cyclical framework perspective, international gold prices remain in the bottom range of $3800~$4100/oz. The $4000/oz level has repeatedly validated buy-side support, but pressure at $4203
USD/oz
remains unbroken above.
The market's focus this week will be Thursday's early morning Fed policy meeting. Current interest rate swaps show a 30% probability of a July hike, and 70% chance for no change. If the Fed strikes a dovish tone, gold could rebound towards $4203
USD/oz
; if a hawkish stance is maintained, it may retest the $4000
USD/oz
level.
Capital flows have shown positive changes: major global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.63 tons this week, ending a previous run of outflows and strengthening the bottom support.
Overall, international gold prices are expected to fluctuate between $4000-$4203
USD/oz
this week and confirmation of a medium-term bottom still depends on signals from Fed policy.
Editor | Jiao Yang Layout | Jiao Yang Visuals | Zhang Zongwei
