OPEC+ plans to pause production increase after September, saying it will assess the impact of the Iran war on supply

As the alliance of oil-producing countries continues to assess the rapidly changing impact of the Iran war on global oil supplies, OPEC+ is expected to pause increasing production quotas after completing its final scheduled output increase in September.

According to Bloomberg citing two representatives, OPEC+ is currently planning to approve an agreement at an online meeting on August 2 to raise the September oil production quota by 188,000 barrels per day. This increase will complete the current round of production hikes, and OPEC+ has no further plans to raise output for the rest of the year. However, specific arrangements may be adjusted depending on changes in the situation.

For several months, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been gradually increasing the amount of oil that member states are permitted to produce and had established a roadmap in May this year to extend the measures through September.

However, in practice, the Iran war has rendered these output hikes largely symbolic, as key Middle Eastern members of the organization have been forced to cut some production and exports.

During the war, Iran has repeatedly attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, causing uncertainty about the scale of supply losses and making it more difficult for OPEC+ to formulate production policies, which has further exacerbated oil price volatility.

During these intermittent hostilities, international oil prices have fluctuated sharply. Last week, Brent crude oil futures briefly surpassed $100 per barrel, but after the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire, prices fell for three consecutive days and were reported at $82 per barrel at the time of writing.