Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low; geopolitical premium has receded but supply risks persist

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智通财经2026/07/29 18:06

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According to the latest data from UBS Evidence Lab, in the past three days, an average of only three oil and gas tankers per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with the throughput remaining at a low level similar to that before the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The average daily number of passages in July has dropped to 6.8, far below the mid-to-high double-digit levels seen at the end of June and beginning of July, and a significant decline from the normal level of around 50 per day in February.
After the US and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding in June, Brent crude oil futures once fell to around $70. However, as Trump announced in early July that the memorandum was effectively void, with both sides resuming hostile stances and accusing each other of breach of contract, geopolitical risks were repriced.
Although oil prices retreated somewhat after Trump decided last Friday not to escalate military action against Iran, passage data shows that the actual situation in the strait has not improved significantly. The risk of energy supply disruption remains unresolved, and the market continues to experience a tug of war between short-term sentiment recovery and long-term structural threats.

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Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low; geopolitical premium has receded but supply risks persist

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